Gulf banks face uneven exposure to the Iran conflict

Figure 2. GDP forecasts for full year 2026 and impact on banks by market

Impact on banks: strong (4–5)

Impact on banks: moderate (3)

Impact on banks: weak–moderate (1–2)

Notes: (1) Credit growth and credit cost outlook based on disclosures and earnings calls. (2) GDP forecast based on latest IMF/Worldbank forecasts. (3) GDP forecast for Saudi Arabia based on June IMF forecast. (4) GDP forecast for Oman based on June Worldbank forecast. (5) Credit cost guidance includes recoveries. (6) Net impairment charges includes impairments and provisions. Source: TABInsights